There’s no doubt that Newt Gingrich had a blow-out win in South Carolina last night.  For most people that puts Gingrich in front-runner status.  The pundits have likened his new status to Lazarus, who the Bible says rose from the dead and came back to life, only the pundit’s are amazed that Newt has been able to basically do this twice.

Everybody has given Gingrich his due with regard to his intelligence, quick wit, and debating skills.  Their fear is that Gingrich will self-destruct somewhere down the line and they also fear his leadership style will alienate allies and be too discombobulated to be effective in the general election.  Now the pundits are saying that Gingrich might cause fellow republicans to distance themselves from him for fear that they would loose re-election bids.  I say hogwash, and here’s why.

Mitt Romney has had front runner status because of several factors.  He has been publicly running for president since 2007 and so his profile and name has been associated with running for president for a long time.  He is a successful businessman who is organized and polished and he has money and ground organization to back him up.  His only big fault has seemingly been his installation of “Romneycare” in Massachusetts when he was Governor.   Up until now he has held front runner status because he has been steady, hasn’t made any big mistakes, and though people may not have been thrilled with the thought of Romney as President, they also felt he was the most acceptable to independent voters and the most likely to beat Obama.

Newt Gingrich’s big win last night changed that perception for many, including myself.  Let’s look at some of the facts…

• Romney has been unable to get a majority of Republicans enthusiastic for him.  His popularity has been due to other candidates splitting the conservative vote and winning overt reluctant voters who felt their best candidate cannot compete as well as Romney could against the Obama machine.

• In 2008 we had a moderate nominee who didn’t win in part because he couldn’t convince the independents he was a clear cut better choice.  Why on earth would we want to repeat that mistake?  We don’t want to win a little, we want a complete change.

• In past years money was the biggest factor.  Usually the one with the biggest bankroll was the one who could win because they could get their message out by buying advertising.  That’s not as true today.  Oh, sure, you still have to have money to defeat the negative ads, but today social media is an inexpensive alternative.  You can put out an interesting ad on the internet and if its clever or provocative it will go viral and the media will report on it giving exposure to people who bypass the ads and are sick of their repetitive nature.

• We’ve had a gazillion debates so far and will probably have a couple more before each states primary.  Years ago the debates were not very meaningful because only the most fervent supporters watched them.  The general public waited for the media to report on them and use the most interesting sound bites.  The problem with this, of course, is that the main-stream media has a liberal bias and that is how they would report.  Today, however, there are many debates, the country is interested in how each candidate’s policies would effect their own world and they are being watched by a growing number of people who would not have had an interest just four years ago.  Nothing drive’s this point home more than Gingrich’s blow-out win in South Carolina last night.

• Many people whose livelihood depends on name recognition will often repeat the slogan “I don’t care what they say about me as long as they spell my name correctly” because they know that when the conversation is about them the substance may be lost but the name will live on.  The same is somewhat true about politics.  Unless something is said which will make people despise you, the notoriety will cause people to be more mindful of your name and in politics that means shutting the other candidates out.  The need of most Christians to be forgiving to a person who admits wrong and seeks forgiveness is great.  That’s one mistake Romney made with “Romneycare”.  Had he come out at the beginning and said he tried it because his legislature was 85% liberal and he thought he could mold it into a reasonable plan that could work, BUT now he realizes it was a mistake he would never repeat, he would have won over more conservatives to his side.  His adamant insistence that it was a great solution for his State, but he wouldn’t want it nationally falls flat and holds him back.

I no longer feel that Mitt Romney is the best candidate to beat Obama.  For one thing Romney’s style is to fight the same way as Obama will, with ads and money being thrown at the problem.  That’s a loser because Obama has a much bigger war-chest and will win on that level.  For another thing, Romney has not been able to generate any real excitement about his campaign.  Almost all the other candidates rose to the lead and their campaigns caught fire before they flamed out.  There was excitement in their ranks.  Romney rose to the lead usually only after someone else flamed out, but his percentages never really improved, even temporarily.  Its like he has always been the “safe” choice rather than the wanted choice.

Any of the candidates remaining would be a better President than our current occupant of the White House, but I think Gingrich now has the best chance and here’s why…

• Ron Paul will remain in the race as long as he has money to do so, regardless of his inability to lead the pack, because he wants desperately to “educate” the republican electorate on his libertarian views.  To this degree he is successful.  He will not be able to pull off a win, but his continuation in the process and the fact that people are listening to him much more than in the past will keep him from running as a third party candidate.  He also does not want to increase Obama’s electability by splitting the conservative vote.

• Rick Santorum will have to face the fact soon that he does not have a chance at winning the nomination.  He may stay in the race through Florida, but his best bet would be to withdraw and support Gingrich much the same way as Perry did.  There’s certainly no shame in the way Santorum has run for the nomination, but the fact is he needed to come in second in South Carolina and beat Romney if the public was going to see his candidacy as viable.  His failure to at least be close to Romney in SC was his candidacy’s death knell.

This is coming down to a two man race between Gingrich and Romney.  Romney has the Money, Gingrich the ability to reach people’s memory and put them on edge as to what he will say or do next.  Scary as that prospect may be to some, it brings notice and excite where there was none before.  We’ll see what happens in Florida.  Romney may just win Florida, because he has been in the state campaigning for a long time and Florida has early and absentee voting rules which means that many in Florida have already cast their votes before Gingrich has even entered the fray.  A lot will depend on the spread between these two as the race continues on, but for now I’ll put my money on the Newtser!